Turkey's rise in SyriaThe apparent initial winner in Syria is Turkey, an American frenemy that is now ascendant in the region over Iran and Russia. From Erdogan's view, Turkey is now in the position it should rightfully have: the great Muslim power in the Middle East, fulfilling his neo-Ottoman imperialist vision of restoring the loss of Turkey's hundreds of years of leadership of the Muslim world.
The question is, will the jihadists of HTS be loyal to Erdogan over time? The alliances of the Syrian rebels could collapse. HTS are Salafists, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. The primary group Erdogan backed was the Syrian National Army (SNA), a rebel group that may be more moderate and weaker than HTS.
Will the stronger HTS jihadists devour their temporary SNA ally? Turkey will work with anyone who will allow it to take over northern Syria, ethically cleanse the Syrian Kurds from that region, and return the three million Syrian refugees to Syria who took shelter in Turkey during the civil war.
The Syrian Kurds, who helped the US defeat ISIS and are imprisoning tens of thousands of ISIS sympathizers, are now on the offensive from their territory in northwest Syria southward, taking over the crucial Sunni city of Deir al Zour. Turkey ethnically cleansed Kurds a few years ago from northeast Syria and is likely to turn its attention to the Kurds in the northwest, who they consider to be mortal enemies, part of the militant group PKK. The US sees the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as allies against ISIS. A Kurdish-Turkish war is the next shoe to fall, which will require the Trump administration to weigh in.
And what about the HTS's ideological jihadist cousins, ISIS (DAESH)? Is this an opportunity for them to arise and wreak havoc in Syria, Iraq, and through the Middle East again as they did a decade ago?
Russia will do all it can to preserve its Hmeimim air base in Latakia and its Tartus naval port on the Mediterranean. The Iran alliance is a casualty for the time being. However, Russia will still work with Iran as part of the axis of resistance, buying drones and missiles for its war in Ukraine, adding to the Supreme Leader's coffers.
As for Israel, it has preemptively moved forces into parts of the Syrian Golan to block jihadists on its border. Sunni jihadists are not friends of the Jewish State, but hopefully, a détente or ceasefire can be arranged. I doubt that HTS will directly speak with Israel, but Israel should try. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Remember, HTS's sponsor, Erdogan, protects Hamas and is profoundly anti-Semitic.
Syria was the target for hundreds of Israeli strikes over the years. Still, it was exclusively about stopping the transit of Iranian arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and, most recently, about targeting Iranian assets and advanced weapons factories in Syria. Israel is now hitting the last of the Syrian and Iranian weapons facilities in Syria to prevent them from falling into the hands of adversaries. However, Israel should anticipate Iran finding new ways to support Hezbollah.
And don't forget about Jordan. The jihadists can either march or inspire the Islamists in Jordan to destabilize a critical US ally, not to mention how Israel's security would be undermined with jihadists in Amman.
With a new American administration only five weeks away and many potential Trump candidates in intelligence and defense positions profoundly influenced by America's debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, the likely recommendation from this group will be for the US to do nothing.
However, the Marco Rubio-Mike Waltz faction knows better. Creating a vacuum in the Levant will create more chaos with the chance of American troops being drawn in again.
The temptation for the neo-isolationist wing is to remove the 900 US troops in the al-Tanf region in Syria, bordering Jordan and Iraq. They have been a stabilizing force in preventing the return of ISIS and supporting our Kurdish allies. They are a force multiplier for stability and should remain in place. But their safety needs to be watched closely and acted upon if the jihadists threaten them. In reality, their greatest threat is the Iranian-controlled militias in Iraq, and they are now on the defensive.
Now is not the time to forget about Iran. Suppose the Supreme Leader and the IRGC know America and Israel will not use kinetic actions to stop their dash to an atomic bomb. In that case, that is an invitation for the still dangerous Supreme Leader to act quickly to become a nuclear power and return to its hegemonic ambitions.
So, who will have President Trump's ear, Rubio, Waltz, and company, or Vice President-elect Vance and Tulsi Gabbard? As always, America may want to leave the Middle East, but the region keeps calling it back.
*Dr. Eric Mandel is the Director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the Senior Security Editor of the Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs member of Congress and their foreign policy aides.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-832581 
