Το ρωσικό ρούβλι ο μεγάλος κερδισμένος του 2015

[Northern Spirit]

[ΣΑΤΑΝΙΚΟΣ ΕΓΚΕΦΑΛΟΣ]

Γατάκια, τσιμπάτε το decade forecast, και περαστικά.

Russia

It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia's failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources will also vary dramatically. This will lead to a repeat of the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s, in which Moscow's ability to support the national infrastructure declined. In this case, it will cause regions to fend for themselves by forming informal and formal autonomous entities. The economic ties binding the Russian periphery to Moscow will fray.

Historically, the Russians solved such problems via the secret police — the KGB and its successor, the Federal Security Services. But just as in the 1980s, the secret police will not be able to contain the centrifugal forces pulling regions away from Moscow this decade. In this case, the FSB's power is weakened by its leadership's involvement in the national economy. As the economy falters, so does the FSB's strength. Without the FSB inspiring genuine terror, the fragmentation of the Russian Federation will not be preventable.

To Russia's west, Poland, Hungary and Romania will seek to recover regions lost to the Russians at various points. They will work to bring Belarus and Ukraine into this fold. In the south, the Russians' ability to continue controlling the North Caucasus will evaporate, and Central Asia will destabilize. In the northwest, the Karelian region will seek to rejoin Finland. In the Far East, the Maritime regions more closely linked to China, Japan and the United States than to Moscow will move independently. Other areas outside of Moscow will not necessarily seek autonomy but will have it thrust upon them. This is the point: There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum. What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation.

This will create the greatest crisis of the next decade. Russia is the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the hinterlands. The decline of Moscow's power will open the question of who controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed. This will be a major test for the United States. Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process. The United States will either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles over time. It is difficult to imagine how this problem will play out. However, given our forecast on the fragmentation of Russia, it follows that this issue will have to be addressed, likely in the next decade.

The issue in the first half of the decade will be how far the alliance stretching between the Baltic and Black seas will extend. Logically, it should reach Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. Whether or not it does depends on what we have forecast for the Middle East and Turkey.

[Diego]

Ρε μαλακα ΣΕ τι πρέπει να κάνω για να μάθετε εδώ μέσα να παραθέτετε και τις πηγές; Λοιπόν, ξεκάθαρα και σε σένα, πηγή ή φεύγει. Its not personal.

[Kauldron]

Ντρέπεται..

To παραθέτω εγώ για τον Kρισκουίκ:
https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decad ... -2015-2025

[Diego]

Μωρε Χελώνε, το βρήκα και εγώ πως ήταν το stratfor αλλά θέλω όλοι να εξασκηθούν με το που πετάνε quote, αμέσως μετα το λινκ.

[paralo]

Μωρε Χελώνε, το βρήκα και εγώ πως ήταν το stratfor αλλά θέλω όλοι να εξασκηθούν με το που πετάνε quote, αμέσως μετα το λινκ.

+1 γλιτωνει χρονο σαβουρας κ κερδιζεις αξιοπιστια σαν φορεας

[Kauldron]

Μωρε Χελώνε, το βρήκα και εγώ πως ήταν το stratfor αλλά θέλω όλοι να εξασκηθούν με το που πετάνε quote, αμέσως μετα το λινκ.

Ε, μετά αν του βάλεις άβαταρ τον Καμμένο με τα κοκορέτσια, θα σκούζει.

[exomotis]

Δεν εχουν πλεον ουτε δυναμη να τρολαρουν.
Μιλαμε οτι τα εχουν χαμενα σε βαθμο που δεν μπορουν να συγκεντρωθουν για βαλλουν εδω κατι που απλα να στεκει.

Για λυπηση, παθετικ.

[ΣΑΤΑΝΙΚΟΣ ΕΓΚΕΦΑΛΟΣ]

Μωρε Χελώνε, το βρήκα και εγώ πως ήταν το stratfor αλλά θέλω όλοι να εξασκηθούν με το που πετάνε quote, αμέσως μετα το λινκ.

Το έχω γράψει εκατό φορές, ρε: έχει πέιγουολ. Πε η γουολ. Βαριέμαι να βάζω σκρινσοτς.

Κατά τα άλλα, τα πουτινάκια να θυμηθούν το 89 και τη δεκαετία πους τους πήρε να ανανήψουν και να μην παίρνουν πολύ θάρρος

[ΣΑΤΑΝΙΚΟΣ ΕΓΚΕΦΑΛΟΣ]

Δλδ να έχεις απέναντι σου τρωγλοδύτες, ρακένδυτους, γίδια, να πας να τους κάνεις ανθρώπους, να τους δίνεις τζάμπα πράμα που ούτε στον ύπνο τους δεν το γλέπουν, και να τ΄ακούς κιόλα. Κάπως έτσι πρέπει να νοιώθουν και οι θεσμοί!